In partnership with

3 ways to know when to sell - Dec 2024 (#47)

Hey there sports fans! Your dude Brent is about to lay some wisdom bombs on all of you crypto HODLers. Why? Cause I know anyone holding a bit of crypto noticed Bitcoin cross 100k and thought… wait? When should I actually sell this stuff? While I have no crystal ball, I do have over a decade of experience in the space (with the scars to prove it). Without further ado, here’s three ways to know when it’s time to sell…

_{Advertisement} 

Add a piece of the energy sector to your portfolio.

• Access to 300 million barrels of recoverable oil reserves

• Royalty-based investment model reducing operational risks

• Projected 25+ years of potential royalty income

Join the Raise

Motivation

The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd, but to think for yourself.

-Peter Thiel

(Share this on Twitter)

Money

Ok, before I dive into the three… I want to make three things clear. First, these are not foolproof and it is up to YOU to figure out when it’s the right time to sell. Second, I personally do NOT have my hands anywhere near the sell button and doubt I will for a bit yet. I fully expect a few big drawdowns and rallies before we are in sell territory. Third, I personally advise not selling Bitcoin in particular whenever you can avoid it, and I mean like… ever. I plan to sell my altcoins… there is no altcoin that I trust to hold long term… yet.

Alrighty, first thing to look at is google search results via Google Trends. Why do I care about Google Trends? Because it’s a great proxy for market euphoria. More interest in crypto=more people googling crypto!

Now check out where ‘cryptocurrency’ is right now on google trends:

As you can see, we still have some ways ‘til we hit the interest levels of 2017 and were no where close to 2020 (no guarantee those pandemic levels of interest are coming back though!). So, imho, still have some room left to go! Also, to make it easier I’ve linked to the simple search I check on here. Your welcome.

Next, check out the Bitcoin rainbow chart. Is this one is simply plotting Bitcoin’s past movements using a logarithmic regression model. Ok, I guess that’s not all that simple, just know some fancy math is used here to project where Bitcoin might be going. All you need to know is that you’re best off waiting until the original chart is at least in the yellow to think about selling, which we are no where near.

To be honest though, I don’t love the rainbow chart as anything more than a quick sanity check. How something performed in the past does not mean it will perform the same in the future and bitcoin is just not an old enough asset to take a lot of stock in past performance. Last cycle the the rainbow chart did not accurately reflect the price movements of Bitcoin so they just made a new one… How do they know the new one will be any better than the old? They don’t…

Finally, and this one is the most tricky to recognize, is there general crypto euphoria in the zeitgeist? Can you not go to a family function or any kind of group gathering without someone bringing up crypto? Is crypto dominating the news headlines? Are prominent celebrities who’ve never said a word about crypto suddenly it’s biggest supporter? Is SNL doing skits on it? If so, it’s time to look for an exit. Remember, to be a good investor you’ve gotta do the opposite of what everyone else is doing! Sell hard into the Euphoria. You’ll feel like an idiot at the time with massive FOMO, but do it anyway…

There you have it, three indicators to keep an eye on for knowing when to sell. Just remember, it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that you will time the top. Don’t get greedy. Many of the best investors sell ‘too early.’ It’s better to be too early than too late with these things. A win is a win is a win. Don’t forget that…

FINAL MEMES

_{WARNING: Below button reveals an offensive meme that is intended for you ONLY if you are a horrible person.}

That’s all folks!

Have a question? Reply on this email!

Copyright (C) 2024 Ann Royal Advisors All rights reserved.
The information contained on this Newsletter and any resources available for download through this newsletter are not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice. I am not an attorney, CPA, or financial advisor, nor am I holding myself out to be, and the information contained on this newsletter is not a substitute for financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.

Question? Comment? Concern? Email me here:
[email protected]