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Bad News = $$$ 🤔 - Feb 2025 (#53)

Hello hello dear reader. Your dude Brent has seen his old friend uncertainty a lot in the news lately… and I suspect we’ll see a lot more in the coming days as well. The question is… what do we do with it?

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Motivation

There is no amount of bad news that the markets cannot see past.

-Seth Klarman

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Money

As you may have noticed… there’s a great deal of uncertainty right now. The news cycle has been a bit of a nightmare for most outlets. This is largely due to Trump being back in office. The guy says some WILD stuff and people either love ‘em or hate ‘em. He said he was going to shake things up… and shake things up he definitely has... This post is not to give my opinion whether this shake up will be good or bad for the country as a whole… I’m just here to make YOU money. And while I have admittedly very very low confidence in our government and our elected officials… I have very high faith in our country’s resiliency and future.

I’ve mentioned this before, but markets HATE uncertainty and scary news. They HATE surprises. Of course there are different types of surprises, but the ones that are the biggest gifts to investors are political surprises. Why? Markets go down, absorb the news, then (90% of the time) go back to where they were. Think about it, despite of who is in office markets STILL tend to go up. As wild a dude as Trump is… I doubt he will be the exception.

Years ago I visited the trading floor of a very prominent Wall Street bank. I noticed a small crappy TV in between two computer monitors. It was sitting in front of a couple very bored looking traders. I noticed the crappy little TV was playing a daytime talk show. I asked about it and they responded that it had been a slow news day so they switched it over to daytime TV… so not much trading. These traders were literally waiting around for news to hit for them to trade on! Why? Because news moves markets… usually down! These traders said they often traded on middle east news. There is definitely a lesson in there…

Lots of scary, strange, and odd things will come across the news… but the smart money doesn’t panic. The smart money uses these blips as opportunities! The news makes more money when it scares people into reading their articles so they are incentivized to scare you. Do your best not to feed into the hysteria and keep yourself focused on your goals and what the most likely outcome will be… here’s a hint… it’s probably not armageddon.

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That’s all folks!

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